Connecting policies to outcomes — with the platform's core discipline made explicit: association is not causation. Every result is tagged Association or Causal, and causal results carry their design, assumptions, and limitations.
ITS: NS long-term-care waitlist around the 2022 LTC capital plan Causal (ITS)
n = 12 pre / 4 post · R² 0.3 · Newey–West (HAC) standard errors
Assumptions. ITS assumes: (1) the pre-intervention trend would have continued absent the intervention (counterfactual); (2) no other event coincides with the intervention date; (3) the chosen functional form (linear segments) is correct; (4) autocorrelation is handled (Newey-West HAC SEs used here).
Limitations. Quasi-experimental ITS on a SINGLE annual series with no control group: the estimate assumes the pre-intervention trend would have continued absent the policy, and cannot separate the policy from coincident events (pandemic recovery, demographic ageing, other concurrent policies). Annual cadence means few post-intervention points and wide confidence intervals; a policy's effect on capacity/utilization also typically lags. Interpret as a structured, auditable starting point for evaluation, not a definitive causal estimate.
ITS: NS nursing & residential-care workforce around the 2022 CCA strategy Causal (ITS)
n = 22 pre / 3 post · R² 1 · Newey–West (HAC) standard errors
Assumptions. ITS assumes: (1) the pre-intervention trend would have continued absent the intervention (counterfactual); (2) no other event coincides with the intervention date; (3) the chosen functional form (linear segments) is correct; (4) autocorrelation is handled (Newey-West HAC SEs used here).
Limitations. Quasi-experimental ITS on a SINGLE annual series with no control group: the estimate assumes the pre-intervention trend would have continued absent the policy, and cannot separate the policy from coincident events (pandemic recovery, demographic ageing, other concurrent policies). Annual cadence means few post-intervention points and wide confidence intervals; a policy's effect on capacity/utilization also typically lags. Interpret as a structured, auditable starting point for evaluation, not a definitive causal estimate.
ITS: NS community pharmacy primary-care visits (illustrative) Causal (ITS)
care_access.pharmacy_primary_care_visits · CA-NS · policy: Action for Health: Nova Scotia's Health Plan · event 2023-08-01
Effect
Coef
95% CI
p
Pre-trend (per step) ✱
1,477
[1,188.9, 1,765.1]
0
Level change
-1,009.9
[-2,075.4, 55.6]
0.0632
Slope change ✱
-715.7
[-1,125.1, -306.3]
0.0006
n = 5 pre / 5 post · R² 0.9 · Newey–West (HAC) standard errors
Assumptions. ITS assumes: (1) the pre-intervention trend would have continued absent the intervention (counterfactual); (2) no other event coincides with the intervention date; (3) the chosen functional form (linear segments) is correct; (4) autocorrelation is handled (Newey-West HAC SEs used here).
Limitations. Short monthly series and an ILLUSTRATIVE intervention date chosen to demonstrate the estimator — not a specific dated policy event. Treat the coefficients as a methods demonstration, not a causal finding: wide CIs, possible seasonality/ramp-up, single treated unit, no control series.
Long-term care waitlist, Nova Scotia · Nova Scotia Association
care_access.ltc_waitlist_ns · CA-NS · policies: Long-Term Care: Build, Renovate, Replace · Continuing Care Assistant Workforce Strategy · Home Care Expansion and Improvement
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Nursing & residential care workforce per 1,000 pop 65+ · Nova Scotia Association
care_access.ltc_workforce_per_1k_65plus · CA-NS · policy: Nova Scotia Nursing Strategy
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Community pharmacy primary care visits (NS) · Nova Scotia Association
care_access.pharmacy_primary_care_visits · CA-NS · policy: Action for Health: Nova Scotia's Health Plan
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Has a regular healthcare provider, population 65+ · Canada Association
care_access.regular_provider_65plus · CA · policy: A Dementia Strategy for Canada: Together We Aspire
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Has a regular healthcare provider, population 65+ · Nova Scotia Association
care_access.regular_provider_65plus · CA-NS · policies: Home Care (Continuing Care) · VirtualCareNS · Collaborative Family Practice Teams
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
VirtualCareNS visits completed, Nova Scotia (annual) · Nova Scotia Association
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Low-income gap ratio, population 65+ (LIM-AT) · Canada Association
financial_security.low_income_gap_65plus · CA · policy: Guaranteed Income Supplement
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Low-income rate, population 65+ (LIM-AT) · Canada Association
financial_security.low_income_rate_65plus · CA · policies: Old Age Security Act · Canada Pension Plan · Guaranteed Income Supplement · Old Age Security pension increase for seniors aged 75 and over
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Low-income rate, population 65+ (LIM-AT) · Nova Scotia Association
financial_security.low_income_rate_65plus · CA-NS · policies: Nova Scotia Seniors' Pharmacare Program · Seniors Care Grant
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Caregiver distress (long-stay home care clients) · Canada Association
independence.caregiver_distress · CA · policy: Canada Caregiver Credit
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Caregiver distress (long-stay home care clients) · Nova Scotia Association
independence.caregiver_distress · CA-NS · policy: Caregiver Benefit Program
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Functional health (very good to perfect), ages 75+ · Canada Association
independence.functional_health_75plus · CA · policy: Age Well at Home initiative
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Sense of community belonging (strong), population 65+ · Canada Association
social_participation.community_belonging_65plus · CA · policies: New Horizons for Seniors Program · Age-Friendly Communities (Public Health Agency of Canada)
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).
Sense of community belonging (strong), population 65+ · Nova Scotia Association
social_participation.community_belonging_65plus · CA-NS · policy: Age-Friendly Communities Grant Program
Assumptions. Descriptive trend only — shows co-movement, not causation.
Limitations. Association, not causation: no control group, no adjustment for coincident events (e.g. the pandemic, demographic shifts, other policies).